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Fabian Quarter-Ending ETF Report

For my radio show and newsletter readers I have posted the latest edition of the Fabian ETF Report.

Armed with this extensive information on virtually the entire ETF universe, you’ll be able to glean a really sharp picture of what sectors, countries and types of ETFs are currently outperforming their peers. Perusing this extensive list of ETFs should give you a real sense of what’s happening—not only in the domestic market, but all over the globe. The data is as of December 31, 2009.

Please enter your information below to download this valuable resource.

Watch my Live MoneyShow Webcast

As we begin 2010, we are entering what is likely a new era in the investing and financial landscape, and now is the time to prepare and execute a safe and profitable investment plan for the year ahead.

It is with that in mind that I proudly invite you to tune in for this LIVE Webcast presentation, titled “ETF Strategies in a Difficult Market.” This presentation will help you gain the knowledge and critical insights you’ll need to make smarter, more informed investment decisions in 2010 and beyond.

Viewing is free, so please click on the link here for more details and to register for this and other live Webcast events, which will come to you from the upcoming World MoneyShow Orlando.

You can also visit MoneyShow.com to see the comprehensive event schedule, and register free to be a part of this all-new for 2010 World MoneyShow Orlando Webcast event series. I look forward to connecting with you.

The Taxes are Coming, the Taxes are Coming!

President Obama just submitted a new 10-year federal budget that has me very worried. The primary reason for my concern is tax hikes. As I expected, the mammoth $3.8 trillion budget for the next fiscal year raises taxes on businesses and upper-income households by $2 trillion over 10 years. And after what could be called very minor spending cuts, the country still will face $8.5 trillion in added debt over the next decade.

The budget for fiscal 2011 imposes nearly $1 trillion in tax increases on families with income above $250,000 over the next 10 years, and it does so by allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire. That’s income, mind you, and not take-home pay or profits. That means a small businessperson with income of $250,000 or more would pay a much bigger portion of that income to Uncle Sam. And because most of the jobs created in this country are created by small business penalized by the new taxes, I think we can safely say that this budget is not conducive to job growth.

How much will taxes go up? Well, the two top income-tax brackets would rise to 36% and 39.6%, from 33% and 35% respectively. For families earning more than that what the president thinks is a mystical sum of $250,000 per year, capital gains and dividend tax rates would rise to 20% from 15%. According to the Wall Street Journal, upper-income families would face $969 billion in higher taxes between 2011 and 2020.

To put it quite simply—the taxes are coming, the taxes are coming, and it’s your job as a smart citizen to make sure you take steps to keep your tax liabilities as low as legally possible.

If you don’t already have a good CPA, then I highly recommend you consult with one soon, especially now that tax season is here.

ETF Talk: Not Your Father’s Precious Metals—Part II

The rollout of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) focused on precious metals other than gold and silver is well worth bringing to your attention. Last week, I featured a fund that invested in platinum and this week I will introduce you to a fund that is tied to a different precious metal, palladium.

It would not surprise me in the least if you never have invested in palladium or if you did not know that the exchange-traded fund ETFS Physical Palladium Shares (PALL) hit the market last month. I have not recommended PALL, but I am impressed that its average daily trading volume has soared to 382,000 in less than a month. I normally look to see if a fund has average daily trading volume of at least 100,000 shares before even considering its mention, and PALL is almost four times that level in just over four weeks of existence.

PALL, issued by ETFS Palladium Trust, is designed to reflect the performance of the price of palladium bullion, less the trust’s expenses. The ETF’s shares are aimed at investors who want a cost-effective and convenient way to invest and to gain exposure in palladium, a rare, silvery-white metal that is used in electronics and in catalytic converters for automobiles.

The fund is down slightly since opening at $43.93 on Jan. 14, before closing at $43.25 on Monday, Feb. 1. However, it jumped 3.73% in a single day on Feb. 1. Also on that day, PALL’s percentage gain outstripped the performance of a prominent fund focused on gold, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), up 2.26%, and a fund targeting silver, the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), up 2.89%.

Beware that the rise and fall of each precious metals fund does not exactly mirror the performance of the precious metal that it attempts to track. The price of gold on Feb. 1 edged up 2.05% to reach $1,105.20 an ounce for the day, while silver jumped to $16.67 an ounce for a gain of 2.96%. Meanwhile, the actual price of palladium rose to $429, up $15 an ounce, or 3.62%. While those returns are not precise matches with their related funds, they still are reasonably close

Obama, Bernanke and Geithner on the Hot Seat

It’s not easy being in power when the electorate is riled up. President Obama certainly found that out last week in Massachusetts, where the election of Republican Scott Brown to the vacant seat of the late Ted Kennedy shattered his party’s filibuster-proof supermajority in the U.S. Senate.

This week another political luminary found out that not everyone approves of the job he’s doing. I am speaking here about Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Although it looks increasingly as though Mr., Bernanke will be confirmed for a second term as head of the central bank, many in the Senate—Democrats and Republicans—have expressed their lack of confidence in the way the Fed Chairman managed the financial crisis.

And finally we have Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who came under fire today from Democrats and Republicans in Congress for his role in the $180-billion-plus taxpayer bailout of insurance giant American International Group (AIG). Geithner claims he played no role in withholding information about AIG deals with business partners, but in hearing held today on Capitol Hill, one member after another expressed their anger over the sordid situation.

Rep. Stephen Lynch, D-Mass., told Geithner: “It just stinks to the high heaven what happened here. The disclosure was not there at the proper time to tell the American people and tell this Congress what was going on.”

In tonight’s State of the Union address we’re likely to find out just how aggressive President Obama is in combating the tough week he and his administration have had. Already we know the president is going to come out swinging on big banks and Wall Street firms, with new proposed legislation to limit the size and scope of financial institutions.

Hey, when you’re down and out, why not beat up on America’s favorite whipping boy—business. Unfortunately for the president, I think he’s barking up the wrong tree. In fact, I think he’d be better served by redirecting that anger inward.

ETF Talk: Not Your Father’s Precious Metals—Part I

Precious metals such as gold and silver have enjoyed a strong move higher in recent months, so the roll out of two new funds focused on other precious metals is worth highlighting. I like funds to establish a minimum volume before I recommend them, so I simply will keep an eye on these funds for now. But they both are gaining trading volume quickly and they warrant watching closely.

This week, I will feature ETFS Physical Platinum Shares (PPLT), a trust that is designed for use by investors who want a cost-effective way to gain exposure to physical platinum. The shares are issued by ETFS Platinum Trust and are intended to reflect the price of platinum, less the trust’s expenses. It is similar to the high-profile SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), since each actually holds bullion bars of the precious metal that it represents.

PPLT began trading Jan. 8 and it already is racking up a daily trading volume that is averaging close to 300,000 shares a day. It is an impressive start for a new fund. Platinum jumped in value 56% last year. However, PPLT itself is down 2.84% between its opening price on its first day of trading and its closing price on Jan. 26. If the retreat continues for awhile, it would offer you a reduced entry price for buying PPLT. The ETF also is appealing because it has a modest expense ratio of just .60%.

An investment in PPLT is not the only way that you can place a bet on platinum. Exchange-traded notes (ETNs) tied to platinum can be purchased through UBS E-TRACS Long Platinum TR ETN (PTM) and iPath Dow Jones AIG Platinum TR Sub-Index ETN (PGM). However, PPLT stands out as the first platinum investment instrument to be launched on the U.S. exchange-traded fund market. As any reader of my ETF Talk columns quickly learns, I love ETFs for their cost-effectiveness and diversification, among other advantages.

Your father and others of his generation may not have gone any further in buying precious metals other than investing in gold or silver. Gold and silver are as exotic as most investors probably will ever get in buying precious metals. But with the stock market still looking volatile and inflation potentially on the rise as many governments around the word run up big deficits, you may want to include more than just gold and silver in your portfolio to help protect your money. Ever since medieval times, metals have proven their worth as sturdy shields.

Special Report: Mutual Funds are Hazardous

Most investors sustained serious damage to their wealth in 2008 – damage that, in many cases, will be difficult to recover from. Certainly Wall Street titans, reckless lenders and irresponsible home buyers all deserve their share of the blame.

But one part of the financial world has not received much scrutiny for its role in the evaporation of investor wealth, and that is the mutual fund industry.

Mutual funds control the majority of Americans’ retirement assets through 401(k)s, IRAs and annuities. Sadly, a gullible public has bought into the idea that steady investments in mutual funds, regardless of market conditions, is the way to make their financial dreams come true. This is one of the biggest fallacies of investing, and why mutual funds are hazardous to your wealth.

In my latest special report entitled, Mutual Funds are Hazardous To Your Wealth, I expose the five serious flaws of these investment vehicles and talk about how exchange traded funds are a far superior alternative.

Why? Because ETFs are less expensive to own than mutual funds and more diversified than individual stocks. For most people looking to grow their serious money over the long term, ETFs are quite simply the best investment vehicles available today.

Click here to download this free special report as a PDF.

As a bonus to this report I would like to offer you a free Mutual Fund Assessment – this includes an in-depth review of your investment goals and analysis of all the funds in your portfolio.

This offer is available for goal-oriented investors with more than $250,000 in their investment portfolios. Contact us for a brief introduction and to schedule a phone call time with you to get some help.

To schedule your free Portfolio Review, call us at 800-391-1118.

Sincerely,
Doug Fabian
President, Fabian Wealth Strategies &
Host, Doug Fabian’s Wealth Strategies Radio Show

Note: Fabian Wealth Strategies, Inc. is a registered investment advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Doug Fabian is a registered investment advisor representative. The information expressed by Fabian Wealth Strategies is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any specific security.

2009 Year End Lemon List Now Available

It’s time again for our quarterly lemon-squeezing ritual. That’s right, it’s time for us to expose the worst-performing mutual funds for what they really are — sour investment vehicles that will make your portfolio pucker.

For Q4, 2009, the Mutual Fund Lemon List contains 1,566 mutual funds totaling $651 billion in assets! Now to be classified as a lemon, the fund must pass strict screening criteria: it must underperform its peer group average for the last 12 months, as well as for the last three and five year periods.

Incredibly, out of this quarter’s universe of 1,566 lemon funds, over 38% (a total of 605) actually had negative annualized returns over the past five years.

It’s becoming increasingly clear to me that investors need to wake up to the reality that many mutual funds just can’t perform as well as those exchange-traded funds (ETFs) with the same investment objective. Sadly, the result is that many investors are losing money that they really cannot afford to lose.

There really is no reason to continue investing in under-performing mutual funds. To find out if you own a lemon fund, simply click here.

ETF Talk: Is Energy Running out of Steam?

With the energy sector exhibiting a second-straight year of weakened demand, the situation could be appealing to investors who may be willing to short utilities in a search for quick profits. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs), such as ProShares UltraShort Utilities (SPD), are available to allow aggressive investors to bet on a retreat in utility stocks. The question is when to pull the trigger on such a trade, since utilities still seem to be aided by the stock market’s general upward trend.

ProShares UltraShort Utilities is a leveraged ETF that seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Utilities Index.

Indeed, U.S. electricity output fell 3.7% last year to mark its biggest drop since 1938, according to federal statistics. That decline in output comes on the heels of close to a 1% production dip in 2008. Reduced U.S. energy production does not appear to be a fluke. The downward trend in demand and production for energy are attributed to a slow economy, conservation efforts and, at least last year, a relatively mild summer in many parts of the United States. As a result, forecasting demand and revenues is becoming increasingly challenging. Without a clear sign that energy demand will be rebounding, it makes it difficult for utilities and the analysts who follow them to make accurate projections.

The question for investors is whether the energy sector is on the verge of giving up some of the gains that it collected since the market began advancing last March. I currently am not recommending shorting energy stocks; however, a case certainly can be made for doing so.

If you needed to pick the industries that are most vulnerable to a retreat, utilities probably should be on your list. Of course, it does not mean investing in a leveraged short fund will help you to turn quick profits right away. You may want to wait and watch the sector in the coming weeks before deciding whether shorting utilities with a leveraged fund is something that you want to try.

Listen to my Investment Strategies Call Now!

On Saturday, Jan. 9, I held my first investor teleconference of the year. This call was tremendously successful, and I want to thank all of you who called in and joined the fun.

Now, if you didn’t get a chance to call in, then don’t fret. A recording of the call is available now at my Web site. To get your FREE download of this call, click here.

ETF Talk: Investing with the Strength of Steel

As we usher in a new year, the economy is projected to improve from the doldrums of 2009. One way to ride the expected economic turnaround this year is to invest in steel. Savvy investors can invest in steel by buying the Market Vectors Steel ETF (SLX). This exchange-traded fund (ETF) has been climbing since last spring and should gain further momentum from rising demand. An ETF also offers diversification by investing in a basket of companies in the steel industry, not just one that could melt down unexpectedly.

J.P. Morgan appears to be taking notice of steel’s improved outlook. The investment firm recently raised its price targets on three of the industry’s major companies, U.S. Steel (X), AK Steel (AKS) and Arcelor Mittal (MT). The report also mentioned that scrap prices have rebounded by roughly 25% since their mid-November lows and could rise by another 15% due to seasonal supply constraints, strong exports, and low inventory levels at the mills. This data is significant because the price of scrap metal is an economic indicator. When the price of scrap metal rises, the economy typically is on the upswing.

A big reason for the increased demand in steel is the voracious appetite for the metal that is coming from China. The Chinese economy has been growing quickly in recent years, while many other economies around the world have been languishing. China’s surging demand for steel is gaining widened attention.

“Already the world’s largest producer by far, the country is expected to rev up production by nearly 10%, The Wall Street Journal reported Jan. 11. “But the higher output likely won’t exceed demand, pushing prices higher world-wide for steel, its raw materials and even coal.”

Steelmakers that temporarily closed a number of mills and cut production as economic conditions sagged last year now are boosting production to address the increased demand. Resurgence in the steel industry is lifting the share prices of the public companies that produce steel.

Teleconference: 2010 Investment Strategies

Join Doug Fabian for his first investment conference of the New Year. On Saturday January 9, 2010 at 12:00 pm (noon) Pacific, Doug will be discussing the investment landscape for 2010.

Doug has been writing on the subject of stocks, interest rates, commodities, and currencies for decades and he is presenting a unique opportunity to learn from his expertise. He believes that 2010 will present an entirely new list of winners and losers in the investment markets, but you must be on the call to act on Doug’s advice.

This one hour tele-seminar will be held exclusively for the first 800 registrants. Early registration is your best way to ensure you will have a seat for Doug’s thoughts on the the investment markets.

Five important keys you’ll learn:

  • His opinion on the direction of stocks in the New Year.
  • What sectors Doug believes show the most potential for profits.
  • What you can do to hedge your portfolio against rising interest rates.
  • His thoughts on Gold for 2010.
  • Which commodity ETFs deserve your attention right now.

The live teleconference will reach capacity because we’ve built an enormous following for this learning series. We urge you to take advantage of this opportunity and reserve your spot today.

Click here to register for this event.

2010—Back to the Future?

By David R. Clarke, President, Miracle Debt Solutions

If you read the economic history books, there’s not much fondness for the 1930s. This was the decade of the Great Depression, where unemployment was well over 20% for much of the time. It’s also when food lines literally stretched for miles long as many American citizens could not afford to even eat. Our economy had never seen such economic peril, and the prevailing conditions of the decade shook the very core of our great nation. All of us can only hope that our country never sees such hard times like this again.

Now, by the title of this article, you might assume that I’m going to equate the coming decade with the 1930s. Well, this kind of fear-inspired parable is not my intention. What I do want to do here, however, is to tell you that thinking about those rough times can be inspiring, particularly if we look at the good that came out of it. You see, the sheer resilience and perseverance of those who survived the Great Depression helped to usher in some of the best economic times our country has ever known.

Fast forward past the war years and into the 1950s. The average family had much more wealth than it did in the 1930s, but when it comes to luxury items, the average 1950’s American family had little when compared to today. What they did have was an abundance of time for family, a proper perspective on material goods, and most importantly—minimal or no debt.

Today, many of those luxury items have been purchased with debt. In fact, the average household carries over $8,000 in credit card balances! How much debt do you think the average family carried in the 1950s? I can’t tell you, because it the number wasn’t even measured do to its insignificance.

One of the goals of my company, Miracle Debt Solutions, is to help people go back to the future. I want my clients to have the kind of priorities and debt levels that most American’s had in the 1950s. I also want them to have the resilience and fortitude to prevail whatever the economic circumstances are, the same way the citizens of the 1930s did.

At Miracle Debt Solutions, we offer a number of programs that help people get out of debt once and for all. We can lower your credit card rates down to 0% – 4.99%, and we can work with you to significantly lower your current monthly payments, and possibly get you a loan balance modification. My goal is nothing short of helping people free themselves from burdensome debt.

In 2010, and in the decade ahead, I hope that many of us learn from the past and set our priorities anew. Let’s take control over our personal and financial situations once and for all. Let’s spend our time and treasure on family, friends and faith, rather than debt and materialism that we cannot afford—and that won’t even yield us the happiness and fulfillment we so desire.

Please contact me at 877-332-8650 for a free, confidential, no obligation consultation today. I can also be reached at dave.clarke@miracledebt.com or via my website at www.miracledebt.com.

Here’s to a debt-free decade!

Note: Miracle Debt Solutions is a partner and sponsor of Doug Fabian’s Wealth Strategies radio show.

Investment Themes for 2010—Part 2

Last week we talked about what I think will be a big investment theme for 2010, rising interest rates. This week we take a look at the second installment in our series on the top 10 investment themes for 2010—currency upheaval.

Now when I say currency upheaval, I am talking largely about the fortunes of the U.S. dollar. To be certain, the dollar has had a lot of upheaval in 2009.

After starting the year with a stout surge, the dollar’s fortunes turned tail in March. And with a few brief periods of sideways movement, the greenback plunged to record lows in late November.

Interestingly, the dollar has been on a sharp run higher since the first week of December. In fact, the dollar recently broke above its short-term, 50-day moving average (blue line), and now appears on route to break above its long-term, 200-day moving average (red line). If the greenback can breach this technical barrier, it could be the start or a protracted bull in the U.S. dollar vs. rival foreign currencies.

This is the kind of currency upheaval I expect will take place in 2010. As more and more countries try to keep the value of their currency low to help stimulate exports, we are likely to see more money move into dollars. Also, the rise in the dollar could mean a pullback in the price of gold.

The price of gold, as represented by the streetTRACKS Gold Trust (GLD), has been on a tear for most of the year. However, since the dollar’s December resurgence, the value of gold has declined precipitously.

I think that the currency upheaval we’re likely to see with the dollar—and with other currencies around the globe—in 2010 will mean opportunities on both sides of the gold trade. It will also mean opportunities on both sides of the international equity market trade, and on both sides of the domestic market trade.

Just about any way you look at it, currency upheaval in 2010 will cause both dislocation and opportunity for investment capital. The trick, of course, is to know which is which, and to be on the right side of the trade.

ETF Talk: Profiting from the Falling Euro

Investors who like to profit from well-timed currency investments may want to consider betting against a weakening euro. Indeed, the U.S. dollar rallied overnight and pushed the euro down today as U.S. stocks, oil and gold dipped.

With investor interest waning in higher-yielding currencies such as the euro, the dollar is ascending. You may recall me voicing my belief in the Dec. 16 ETF Talk that the dollar had fallen below what I viewed as its true value, and that its downward trend was starting to change. Well, that reversal of the dollar’s fortunes appears to be taking hold.

One way to profit from a flagging euro is to invest in the UltraShort Euro ProShares (EUO), an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that seeks to replicate, net of expenses, twice the inverse performance of the EUR/USD daily price change. Basically, with EUO, you are betting on the dollar’s rise vs. the euro. Right now, betting against the euro is looking like a shrewd move.

The dollar hit intraday highs against the euro, yen and the Canadian dollar after the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened lower today. Reports also surfaced this morning that loans to companies in the euro zone fell in November, which put further downward pressure on the euro.

In my experience, currency trends often seem to last longer than they should. With the trend now working in EUO’s favor, the fund could be a place where currency investors may want to put a small percentage of their funds.

With equities and commodities under pressure in recent weeks, the dollar is strengthening at the expense of the euro and other currencies. With the economic recovery in Europe appearing as though it may lag behind other regions of the world, the European Central Bank could be forced to remain in neutral as other central banks look to fend off inflation in the months ahead. If that situation arises, the euro will be vulnerable to further declines.

Financial Success in the New Year

I can’t believe it, but 2010 is just about a week away. And soon, we’ll all be resolving to not make the same mistakes we made in 2009. If you haven’t started making your financial New Year’s resolutions for 2010, let me give you a little head start. Here’s just a sneak peak at what I want smart investors to resolve to do next year:

  1. I will prepare my family for an unpredictable economic environment in 2010.
  2. I will have a positive increase in my liquid net worth.
  3. I will save in excess of 10% of my gross income in my retirement accounts.
  4. I will save and safely secure at least three months of living expenses.
  5. I will stop losing money on bad investments and/or bad investment advice.

I know these resolutions may seem simple, but honestly, did you accomplish all of these goals last year? If the answer is no, then why not make 2010 the year when you do things right?

There is no time like the beginning of a new year to really focus on your goals, so take control of your financial life and make 2010 the beginning of a wonderfully profitable new decade.

ETF Talk: Oh, How I Love Thee

Subscribers to my investment newsletters and trading services know about my passion for exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Over the past year, I have provided you with features relevant to investors who are looking to improve their portfolios with a variety of funds that are both diversified and cost efficient. Now, I want to get back to the basics of ETF investing. Or, to say it more poetically, “ETFs, oh, how I love thee.”

One of the top reasons I love ETFs is their modest cost. ETFs offer low expense ratios, and annual expenses typically are deducted from dividends. ETFs also produce fewer capital gains and are more tax efficient than mutual funds.

In addition, ETFs offer diversification that reduces risk. The funds typically track indexes that are made up of a basket of stocks. Investors can find ETFs that cover every major index, asset class, and sector. Whether you favor commodities, healthcare, technology or real estate, there is a diversified ETF available to you.

ETFs also are transparent, since they are required to disclose their exact holdings and the percentage of each asset that a fund owns. Because ETFs are traded on exchanges just like stocks, the funds provide liquidity to investors who want to buy and sell them in the open market. But remember to be sure a fund’s trading volumes are adequate to provide liquidity. While not a strict rule of mine, I generally do not recommend ETFs that have an average volume of less than 100,000 shares a day.

Finally, I love the simplicity and variety of ETFs. You usually can find a bull market someplace, no matter what markets elsewhere are doing. The challenge is choosing the sector or the region that investors will begin to favor next.

Here’s to a prosperous New Year!

ETF Talk: Betting on the Buck

The U.S. dollar had been getting hammered for much of the past year, but recent debt problems in Europe are giving the greenback a lift. Fortunately, there are exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that you can buy to help you profit from the rising dollar.

Whether the recent upward trend in the greenback is only short-lived, or the start of a long-term trend remains to be seen. However, currency swings due have a tendency to be sustained longer than most might expect. The latest example is the big drop in the value of the U.S. dollar earlier this year. In my view, this plunge exceeded what reasonably was warranted.

If the dollar continues to rebound, the greenback’s resurgence could offer a nice chance to profit. One of the funds that I have on my radar screen for investing in the dollar is the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP).

Keep in mind that the greenback often is considered a safe-haven currency. When markets are jittery and governments are in danger of defaulting on their debt obligations, the dollar generally rises. A key reason is that investors seek the protection of a currency that is backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. Yes, Uncle Sam still conjures up images of strength when the rest of the world seems to be falling apart.

The Wall Street Journal wrote a scary story about the outlook for the euro in its Dec. 15 issue. It described how the euro is tumbling as debt woes spread across the euro zone. Greece, for example, appears unable to stem growing fears about its debt problems, despite government pledges of austerity and fiscal rigor. New worries about Austrian banking, after this week’s surprise nationalization of one of the country’s banks at the behest of the European Central Bank, also raised red flags about the euro. Yesterday, the euro dropped to its lowest value since October by falling to $1.4505.

In addition, a German government budget spokesman said this week that exploding budget deficits of economically weak European countries will force his country and other financially strong nations throughout the continent to consider how to support their struggling neighbors. These so-called “PIIGS,” i.e., the countries of Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain, are weighed down by big budget deficits and discouraging growth prospects.

Without question, the U.S. government is running up record deficits of its own and its economy is not exhibiting robust growth either. But America still has a reputation as a country that has proven its creditworthiness. The reaction of the market during the past week or so confirms the sentiment that the dollar offers a safe harbor in the midst of a brewing financial storm.

Why the Next Decade in Real Estate Finance Will Be Different

By John Doan, President, Miracle Mortgage

I frequently speak with people who fondly remember what their homes were worth two, three and four years ago. Many of them actually think holding their home will soon return to those previous levels. They talk about how that value will inevitably come back, because “real estate always goes up.”

I recall back in March 2000 when I was buying stocks while the NASDAQ was eclipsing 5,000. I just knew that my investments were going to pay off big time, and I knew that this was going to be the easiest money I ever made. Today the NASDAQ sits at 2,172, about 60% below that all-time high.

My point here is that we don’t know if, and/or when, the value of an investment will even stabilize, much less go higher. This is particularly true when it comes to real estate. But what we do know is that the next decade will be much different in terms of opportunity. Going into 2010, we have to ask ourselves what history tells us about where the opportunities will exist.

This is what we do know going into the next decade:

- Mortgage rates remain at all time lows with a conforming 30-year mortgage averaging about 4.75%.

- The federal budget deficit is projected to average $1 trillion annually over the next 10 years.

- The federal government will have to issue massive amounts of new debt to both pay off maturing Treasuries, and to help fund our enormous federal budget deficits.

- To be able to drum up demand for this debt, the government will have to pay an increased interest rate on these new bond issues to entice investors, both domestic and foreign, to continue buying that debt.

- All of this is occurring in one of the worst declining periods in history for the U.S. dollar. This means foreign governments buying our debt have a greater chance of principal loss when buying dollar-denominated debt with foreign currency.

- Mortgage rates historically correlate closely to 10-year Treasury yields.

- Over 10% of every mortgage in this country will switch from a fixed, to a variable rate, within the next 18 months.

All of these known conditions represent the plain and simple truth that mortgage rates are artificially low right now, and they will surely go up—and go up substantially—from where they are now. When will this happen, exactly? No one knows the exact answer, but what we do know is you can take advantage of the current low mortgage rate situation—if you act quickly.

If you have a mortgage rate over 5%, or if you have any risk at all of a rate change at any time during the life of your loan, then you should take complete control of your financial well being today and contact us to get a free assessment of your current situation.

Remember, the risk of rising rates and declining home prices is not the main issue facing many of us today. Rather, it’s the risk of inaction that truly is the biggest nemesis.

To contact me for your FREE mortgage assessment, go to my website at www.mymiraclelending.com, e-mail me at askjohn@miraclecorporation.com, or call me at (888) 536-3453.

P.S. As a special offer to all Doug Fabian Alert readers, if you qualify and lock in a loan with us in December, all points, fees and costs for that loan will be waived.

A Greek Tragedy

You may not have heard this news, but Greece just had its bond rating cut to BBB from Moody’s. Now, you may be asking what the big deal is. After all, what does Greece’s credit rating have to do with my investments here at home? Well, just like you, countries have credit ratings. They issue bonds and borrow from banks just like a large corporation does. A downgrading of a country’s sovereign debt means they are likely in fiscal difficulty, and that’s never good.

One of the investment themes I believe will take shape in 2010 has to do with large debt defaults from strong corporate and sovereign institutions that were formerly considered bulletproof. Now, many people here in the United States think we have the worst debt levels in the world. That’s in part why we are seeing the rush to own gold, and the rush to put money to work in international markets. Sure, we do have our debt problems in this country, but they are far from the level of dangerous debt many other countries hold.

A widespread sovereign debt crisis could rock the world’s stock markets, and it could even cause a stampede back into the U.S. dollar. I will be watching this Greek tragedy unfold in the weeks and months ahead, and I promise I will let you know if I think it will affect your investments here at home.

If we do see a sovereign debt meltdown, the crisis it will likely show up first in the bond market. In last week’s radio show, I talked about how investors need to start paying attention to risk. Most people are aware of the risk in the stock market, but when it comes to the bond market, somehow people think that they can’t lose money.

So far this year, investors have poured more then $230 billion into bond funds. This is a huge amount of money, especially when you consider that only a net $2 billion was funneled into stock funds. This tells me that investors now are thinking that they are more properly diversified than they were last year. They reason that if stocks take a hit again, at least their bonds will buoy their portfolio. Well, I think this line of thinking is a big mistake.

Bonds can get hurt in two primary ways. First, if interest rates rise, the value of bonds go down sharply. A 1% rise in long-term interest rates will send bonds down 7-15%, depending on the type of bond. Second, there is credit risk. As I mentioned earlier, we are starting to see things happen in the bond market that rarely happen. A Sovereign country going into default is a risk nobody has really planned for, and a blowup in this market could really send the value of all sorts of bonds lower.

As of right now, the bond market is holding up fine. If, however, interest rates rise, and/or if countries around the world continue having their credit ratings slashed, it could spell bond market trouble.

One indicator of early bond risk is the trend in high-yield corporate bonds, otherwise know as junk bonds. So far junk bonds still are enjoying a solid uptrend. But if this uptrend begins to falter, and if bonds start to lose their luster, then even those “safe” bond positions could be at risk.

If you want to find out how to prepare yourself from the risk of a potentially substantial bond market downturn, then I suggest listening to my radio show last week for more details. To listen to the show, just click here.

Time to Talk Taxes

You might not be thinking about taxes with the holidays now in full swing, but my friend and CPA Lee Haight called me the other day to remind me that there are several strategies I can employ before the end of the year to reduce my tax burden. Lee asked me to pull together my tax documents so that he could check on withholdings and payments, to confirm my tax liability and to consider how I can lower my tax bill. Lee’s ideas were great, so I asked him if he would put together a few thought for you. I think you’ll find the following tax tips very helpful.

Time to Talk Taxes

By R. Lee Haight, CPA

Year-end tax planning can be very productive, especially this year, because timely actions will result in tax savings that may not be available next year. For individuals these include: the option to deduct state and local sales and use taxes instead of state income taxes; the option to take a standard or itemized deduction for state sales tax and excise tax on the purchase of motor vehicles; the option to take the above-the-line deduction for qualified higher education expenses; the option to tax-free distributions by those age 70 1/2 or older from IRAs for charitable purposes, and the $8,000 first-time homebuyer credit (expires for purchases before May 1, 2010).

For business owners, you should consider taking the deduction for 50% bonus first-year depreciation for most new machinery, equipment and software; the ability to expense up to $250,000 on qualified asset purchases; the research tax credit; and the 15-year write-off for qualified leasehold improvements, qualified restaurant buildings and improvements and qualified retail improvements.

Also remember that alternative minimum tax (AMT) exemption amounts for individuals are scheduled to drop drastically next year, and most nonrefundable personal credits won’t be available to offset the AMT.

Higher-income taxpayers and investors should consider the possibility that long-term capital gains rates could go up, so it may make sense for some people to take large profits this year. On the other hand, there will no longer be an income-based reduction of most itemized deductions, nor will there be a phase-out of personal exemptions. Also for next year, traditional IRA to Roth IRA conversions will be allowed regardless of a taxpayer’s income.

Some tax planning ideas for 2009 should include:

  • Increasing the amount you set aside for next year in your employer’s health flexible spending account (FSA) if you have set aside too little for this year. If you become eligible to make health savings account (HSA) contributions in December of this year, you can make a full year’s worth of deductible HSA contributions for 2009.
  • Realize losses on stock while preserving your investment position. You can sell the original holding, and then buy back the same securities if you choose to, but remember you must wait at least 31 days to repurchase those securities without penalty.
  • Postpone income until 2010 and accelerate deductions into 2009 to lower your 2009 tax bill. This strategy may enable you to claim larger deductions, credits and other tax breaks for 2009 that are phased out over varying levels of adjusted gross income.
  • If you believe a Roth IRA is better than a traditional IRA, and if you want to remain in the market for the long term, consider converting traditional-IRA money invested in de-valued securities into a Roth IRA if eligible to do so. Such a conversion will increase your adjusted gross income for 2009.
  • If you own an interest in a partnership or S corporation you may need to increase your basis in the entity so you can deduct a loss from it for this year.
  • Estimate the effect of any year-end planning moves on the alternative minimum tax for 2009, keeping in mind that many tax breaks allowed for purposes of calculating regular taxes are disallowed for AMT purposes.
  • Accelerate big ticket purchases into 2009 in order to assure a deduction for sales taxes on the purchases if you will elect to claim a state and local general sales tax deduction instead of a state and local income tax deduction. Be careful to consider the effect caused by the AMT.
  • If you are planning to buy a car, do so before year-end for the deduction for state sales tax and excise tax on the purchase.
  • Businesses should consider making expenditures that qualify for the business property expensing option, which is up to $250,000 for assets bought and placed in service this year; the maximum expensing amount will drop to $134,000 for assets bought and placed in service next year. Businesses also should consider making expenditures that qualify for 50% bonus first year depreciation if bought and placed in service this year. This bonus write-off generally won’t be available next year.
  • If you are self-employed and haven’t done so yet, set up a self-employed retirement plan.
  • You can save gift and estate taxes by making gifts sheltered by the annual gift tax exclusion before the end of the year. You can give $13,000 in 2009 to an unlimited number of individuals, but you can’t carry over unused exclusions from one year to the next.

These are just some of the year-end steps that can be taken to save money on your 2009 tax bill.

Lee Haight, and his firm Allen, Haight & Monaghan specialize in high-income and high-net-worth taxpayers that need help with tax planning and liability management. Lee can be contacted at:

Allen Haight & Monaghan, LLP
2603 Main Street, Suite 600
Irvine, CA 92614
Phone: 949.852.9433
Email:rlh@ahmcpas.com
www.ahmcpas.com

Emerging Markets Present Big Opportunities, Risks

Emerging markets typically offer the greatest opportunities—and the most risk. If you have tracked the markets closely in just the past week, you likely noticed sizable one-day swings up and down largely due to news of debt problems from Dubai last Thursday. On that day, emerging markets dropped sharply. However, emerging markets rebounded solidly this week when those debt problems seemed isolated, and less severe than first feared.

The past week has been a lesson in why emerging markets require you to accept a heightened measure of risk. It also shows that emerging markets can be profitable whether you trade them long or short, and if you do so at the right times. With markets generally trending upward in recent months, taking long positions has made sense. If you ever truly know or expect that a crisis is about to unfold, buying a wisely chosen short position can be a good way to turn a quick profit.

Dubai’s move last week to try to delay repaying the debt of its flagship company, Dubai World, scared investors and pushed the markets down. The markets rebounded yesterday when reports surfaced that the Dubai World debt problem only may total $26 billion, rather than the $60 billion initially reported last Thursday. Also yesterday, the Dow industrials rallied 127 points as worry eased generally about the Dubai World debt. The fallout further was limited when leadership of the United Arab Emirates tried to steady the nerves of investors with calming public statements.

I think the worst of this Dubai debt news is behind us. For Dubai itself, there is more than just the future of $26 billion of debt at stake. Although it is quite possible that other companies in Dubai may face similar financial pain, the fallout still unfolding in the Gulf nation likely will not create anything akin to a domino effect that knocks down emerging markets around the world.

For that reason, you may want to consider riding the rebound of emerging markets with a purchase of an exchange-traded fund (ETF) such as the ProShares Ultra MSCI Emerging Markets (EET).

If you want to wait for the next crisis to hit or you anticipate one that you think you can time, the ProShares UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets (EEV) might be worth buying just before, or just after, news about the next financial calamity. If that crisis is short-lived, you will want to sell this fund quickly.

Please be cautious about any taking any ultra- or ultra-short positions, since they are designed to move double the direction of a non-leveraged ETF. EET is intended to move twice the direction of the daily performance of the MSCI Emerging Markets index, while EEV is created to correspond to twice the inverse performance of the same index.

If you believe stock markets still have room to rise, emerging markets provide the greatest chance for big profits on the short term. However, if you expect the current market rally to fizzle, emerging markets could be among those that pull back the most.

What I’m Truly Thankful For

I can’t let this Thanksgiving week go by without addressing a few things that I’m truly thankful for. On Monday, I had a great conversation with a new Successful Investing subscriber who told me that prior to joining the service he was so worried about the market and his investments that is was actually making him physically ill. He told me that now that he has a plan in place that will protect him in the event of a market downturn, he now actually feels at ease with his money once again.

It’s this kind of success story that makes me so very thankful for the work I get to do each and every day. Helping people attain financial peace of mind is the most rewarding aspect of what I do, and that is something I am truly thankful for.

I also am truly thankful for the fact that I was born and raised in a country where I am free to make my own decisions, and where building wealth is chiefly a function of hard work and perseverance.

But what I am truly, truly thankful for this Thanksgiving week—and indeed every week of the year—is you, the reader and investor.

So, this Thanksgiving, while you are giving thanks for all the great things in your life, please know that I will be giving thanks for all of the great things in my life—and that means I am thankful for you.

ETF Talk: Does the Yen Offer a Safe Haven?

If you are concerned that the stock market’s rise in recent months could be running out of steam, you may want to consider protecting yourself by making a short-term investment in a stable foreign currency, such as the Japanese yen.

With the yen appreciating in the face of a weakening U.S. dollar, the Japanese currency could be considered a relatively safe way to protect your money and to give you a chance for a bit of appreciation if stocks pull back significantly. Currency investments typically do not make you rich. However, they do offer a way to invest that is not directly correlated with the direction of the equity markets.

You do not need to think back any further than last fall’s steep market drop to appreciate the value of owning a short-term investment that allows you to sleep at night. Even though the Dow retreated Wednesday, Thursday and Friday last week, the CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) exchange-traded fund (ETF) closed up during that three-day period. It also rose again Monday, as it strengthened against the weakening U.S. dollar, even as the market advanced.

Clearly, the yen offers a way to avoid the fallout of short-term equity pull backs and also lets you escape the downward draft of the dollar.

The dollar traditionally is a currency that is viewed as a source of safety when the markets flounder. With U.S. interest rates about a low as they can go, the dollar is losing value, while the yen and selected other currencies are appreciating. The preceding chart gives a graphic indication of FXY’s upward trend.

With U.S. interest rates among the lowest in the world, U.S. investors who seek the highest rates of return can put their money in foreign currencies such as the yen. This so-called “carry trade” activity further depresses the dollar and boosts the yen. Of course, this situation can reverse, so you need to monitor currency fluctuations closely.

For now, the yen is gaining value. Indeed, the Japan of Bank reported on Nov. 20 that the country’s economy is picking up due to various policy measures taken domestically and abroad. An improving Japanese economy further buoys the yen.

In bull markets, the yen tends to lag behind. In unstable markets, the yen is a defensive buy.

Obama Impact Part 3 Audio Recording Available

In my third installment of the five-part series, The Obama Impact on Your Money, I share with you three simple strategies to grow and protect your wealth using exchange traded funds. The world of ETF’s keeps getting better and better. We can now invest in almost any asset class, currency or country in the world.

Three important keys you’ll learn:

  • How to get defensive with your stocks and mutual funds.
  • How to prepare for rising interest rates and how to profit from them.
  • Which commodity ETF deserves your attention right now and how much of your portfolio to invest in them.

Simply click here  to access the one-hour audio recording of this call and download my handout to follow along.

Sincerely,

Doug Fabian, President – Fabian Wealth Strategies

What the Fed Said

Today’s Federal Reserve decision to leave interest rates unchanged, and at essentially zero, came as little surprise to Wall Street. But as has become the norm on Fed decision days, the reading of the tea leaves and the parsing of the language by market pundits is in ample supply.

So this week, I thought I’d let you read what the committee said for itself. Doing so will give you a sense of the kind of language the Fed employs when discussing the economy. Now, I know this may not be the most riveting read, but it behooves you to make the effort to find out what Fed policymakers are saying. After all, their thought process behind monetary and fiscal policy affects us all.

To read the entire Federal Reserve statement, click here.

ETF Talk: Profit with the Right Materials

Last week’s government-subsidized, 3.5% third-quarter growth in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) may or may not be a true indicator that the economy is turning around. But if the recovery is real, it could send stocks of materials companies soaring.  If, however, we see the economy stall, we could see a slide in cyclical stocks.

Whichever way cyclical stocks go, there are exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that can help you profit.  The best of these ETFs are linked to the basic materials sector.

If you are bullish on materials, then the ProShares Ultra Basic Materials fund (UYM) might be right for you. The ETF seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, which correspond to twice (200%) the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Basic Materials Index.

Look no further than this morning’s financial news if you want to make a bullish case for the materials sector. Investors rushed into stocks early today, after improved results on service industries and employment eased two of the biggest worries about the economy.

On the other hand, a weak report on consumer sentiment and a drop in consumer spending sent stocks sliding last Friday. In fact, the market overall retreated last week, as well as yesterday.

If you want to try to profit by going short on the materials sector during such market dips, you may want to consider the ProShares UltraShort Basic Materials (SMN). This ETF seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, which correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Basic Materials Index. However, the fund can be volatile. One example is its nearly 8% drop last Thursday, after the positive GDP report led some investors to conclude an economic recovery genuinely began in the third quarter.

I personally am not sure what the real GDP number would have been without the government’s effort to stimulate the economy through the “cash for clunkers” program to fuel car sales, and the tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time homebuyers. Consumer spending, which normally drives recoveries, is unlikely to climb much with the unemployment rate forecasted to top 10%. If shoppers retrench in the face of rising joblessness and tight credit, the fragile recovery could tip back into recession.

Even President Obama acknowledged last week after the release of the GDP numbers that “we have a long way to go to fully restore our economy” and recover from the deepest business slump since the 1930s-era Great Depression.

Mixed signals about the economic outlook came from Burlington Northern yesterday, as its CEO Matt Rose said that consumers will be the driver of any improvement in the economy, but he added that people aren’t buying yet. And coal shipments to power plants have dropped because of lower electricity demand.

Meanwhile, Burlington Northern also announced yesterday that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway agreed to buy the nation’s second-largest railroad in a $26.3 billion deal that reflects long-term optimism about the U.S. economy. At least Buffett is a believer in long-term U.S. economic growth.

Clearly, a case exists to play the materials sector either way right now.

Obama Impact Teleconference – Part 3

In my third installment of the five-part series, The Obama Impact on Your Money, I will be sharing with you three simple strategies to grow and protect your wealth using exchange traded funds. The world of ETF’s keeps getting better and better. We can now invest in almost any asset class, currency or country in the world.

Three important keys you’ll learn:

  • How to get defensive with your stocks and mutual funds.
  • How to prepare for rising interest rates and how to profit from them.
  • Which commodity ETF deserves your attention right now and how much of your portfolio to invest in them.

Join me live Saturday November 7th at 12:00 (noon) Pacific time, 3:00 pm Eastern, as I discuss how to organize your assets, identify new opportunities, and position yourself for safety using my favorite investment vehicle – ETF’s.

The live teleconference will reach capacity because we’ve built an enormous following for this learning series. I urge you to take advantage of this first announcement and reserve your spot today. Click here to register.

These are unprecedented economic times. The government spending, interference in the financial markets, planned takeover of healthcare, and the assault on capitalism all have me concerned about our future.

We can help you navigate these difficult times ahead. Join me for our teleconference Obama Impact on Your Money – Part THREE. It’s time to regroup your wealth plan. Click here to register.

Rotating Leaders, Rotating Laggards

One clear sign that a market has reached the top is a rotation of market leadership. When sectors that have led the market higher begin to falter, and when laggard sectors begin to show signs of life, you know that a changing of the guard is underway.

Over the past 30 days we’ve seen several sectors that have led the market higher through much of 2009 begin to falter. Formerly leading sectors such as financials (down 5%), basic materials (down 4.5%) and transportation (down 5%), all have had tough slogging over the past four weeks.

Conversely, stocks in the formerly beaten-down energy space (up 4%), consumer staples (up 2.7%) and rising long-term interest rates, i.e., falling bond prices (up 2.5%), are now taking center stage as market winners over the last 30 days.

I think if we continue to see a sell off in stocks, that sell off will be worse in those sectors like financials, basic materials and transportation. That means if you are holding long positions in any of these sectors, it may be time to start thinking about reducing that exposure.

Of course, it also means that if you are looking for new sector leadership, you may have to look at sectors that didn’t fully participate in run up that started in March.

ETF Talk: Is Real Estate Really the Land of Opportunity?

It remains to be seen whether a tepid recovery of the housing market now starting to take shape can be maintained. The good news for investors is that there are two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that allow you to play the real estate market whether you are an investor with a positive outlook, or a more negative view.

If you have a positive outlook on the real estate sector, you may be interested in the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index Fund (IYR). The fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the real estate sector represented by the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index.

If your view of the real estate sector is pessimistic, and/or if you think that the recent signs of improvement are shaky, then you should consider the ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (SRS). This fund seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index. In other words, if the index falls by 4%, the ETF is designed to rise by 8%.

Despite rising U.S. unemployment and reduced consumer confidence, the housing market has been showing signs of a slow recovery this year. New-home sales are up 30% since bottoming in January, and this improvement appears to have swayed builders enough to increase construction modestly. In addition, existing-home sales, year over year, were 9.2% higher last month than the level in September 2008.

Aiding this growth is low mortgage rates. In fact, the average 30-year mortgage rate dipped to 5.06% in September, down from 5.19% in August.

Demand for previously owned homes rose in September, as buyers took advantage of reduced prices and an $8,000 tax credit that is in place until the end of next month. The credit has worked so well that key Senate Democrats are preparing legislation to extend the tax credit into 2010.

However, amid fears that the credit won’t be extended, some buyers rushed to the market in September to use the subsidy before it ends. This has led some to believe that the improved sales figures for September are inflated, and due not reflect true market demand.

However, declining mortgage rates, along with word that a government tax-credit program for first-time homebuyers could receive an extension, appeared to boost shares of homebuilders. Lennar (LEN) appeared to lead the pack, with its shares jumping 9% in early October, after news reports about the proposed extension of the tax credit.

In addition, the Federal Reserve’s latest findings reflect concerns about commercial real estate. The Fed described commercial real estate as one of the weakest sectors across all of its districts due to a lack of credit availability.

Although some signs point to stabilization in residential real estate, a complete recovery is unlikely any time soon. Clearly, the near-term future of real estate remains murky. But if you are confident about its direction one way or the other, the two ETFs that I identified could offer you a chance to cash in. Remember, though, that this sector is very volatile, so I recommend that you proceed with caution.

How Do We Reduce the Deficit?

Last week I read a fascinating post on the blog of one of my favorite pundits, Mike Shedlock, better known to his audience as “Mish.” In his post, Mish analyzed my friend and fellow market pundit John Mauldin’s recent article on how to solve the nation’s fiscal mess.

John offers up some insightful solutions to our budgetary quandary, and some of them could certainly be considered extreme. Mish takes on each of John’s suggestions, and he goes even further in his recommendations on how to get our nation’s fiscal house in order.

Interestingly, both John and Mish think our military budget and our foreign entanglements will eventually break us. Both also offer up the radical suggestion that we should drastically slash military budgets, Mish even says up to 70%!

If you want to see two no-nonsense market mavens take on the issue of our fiscal fiasco the way we wish our politicians would, then I strongly urge you to read Mish’s blog piece by clicking here.

ETF Talk: Shorting Financials

Financial stocks endured a battering during the credit crisis before a number of them started to recover in recent months. If you’re like me, you’re probably wondering if that trend will continue. You may also be wondering if banks still have an abundance of bad loans on the books.

Third-quarter earnings reports issued in the last week or so by a number of major banks and credit-card issuers indicate that the credit crisis has yet to end. But continued troubles in the banking industry could put money in your pocket if you can time the share-price movements in the banking sector successfully. Of course, market timing is a big challenge for even the best investors, so tread carefully.

One exchange-traded fund (ETF) that you may want to consider for a short-term trade is the ProShares Short Financials (SEF). This fund seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to the inverse of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Financials Index. In other words, if the index falls 2%, the fund is designed to climb 2%. That’s good news for those who think that banks still have a long way to go before they fully overcome their problems with bad loans.

Much of the data released last week tends to bode poorly for banks, with earnings reports warning about further challenges for lenders. The latest financial results of credit card issuers show rising delinquency rates — a key gauge of future losses — in the face of increased unemployment.

This negative data comes at a particularly bad time of year, as the holiday season approaches. It can be expected that many cash-strapped consumers may increase spending on their credit cards and fall even further behind on their payments.

The troubles for lenders don’t stop there. Issuers of credit cards, including Capital One Financial Corp., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., Discover Financial Services Inc. and American Express Co., also are coping with sweeping legislation that restricts certain fees and rate hikes. These limits will squeeze their potential income.

In particular, Bank of America Corp. reported Friday that it lost more than $2.2 billion in the third quarter as loan losses keep mounting. That bad news provides further evidence that consumers still are struggling to pay their bills.

Bank of America’s earnings follow the pattern set earlier in the week by Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., which also reported more loan losses during the third quarter as consumers strained to keep up with credit card and mortgage payments. Bank of America’s CEO Ken Lewis said, “Based on (the) economic scenario, results in the fourth quarter are expected to continue to be challenging as we close the year.”

While I am not recommending this particular fund right now, SEF could offer investors a chance to profit from the ongoing turmoil in the banking industry. However, timing a move into such a fund is dicey. Ideally, you make such a purchase before bad news is announced, then sell the position at a profit once the rest of the investment community becomes aware of the latest problems. If you buy too early or sell too late, such a purchase can backfire on you. If you choose to buy this fund, be sure to monitor your position closely.

Your Mortgage – Risk & Opportunity

I just completed a special live conference call discussing real estate financing. Interest rates are near all time lows and you may not have thought about your mortgage since the last time you purchased your home or refinanced. But trust me when I tell you that now is the time to review your mortgage financing.

In my opinion we are about to enter a period of rising interest rates which may cause problems for homeowners. It will become more difficult to qualify for a loan, mortgages will become more expensive, payments within adjustable rate mortgages will rise, and the ability to lock in a historically low rate will be gone. Here are some of the questions we answered on our special Mortgage Advice conference call.

  • What does it take today to qualify for historically low rates today?
  • What type of loan programs are available?
  • What will happen to my adjustable rate mortgage payments if interest rates rise?
  • Are there financing options for seniors and retirees on fixed incomes?

Joining me on the call is mortgage expert John Doan, President of Miracle Mortgage. Miracle Mortgage is a Santa Ana, CA based mortgage broker and sponsor of our radio show.

This report was recorded live on October 24, 2009. Please download the seminar handout below and click either Windows Media or MP3 to listen to the audio.


Listen in Windows Media

Download the MP3 (right click and choose “save as”)

Click here to download the seminar handout

Note: John Doan is the president of Miracle Mortgage Corporation. Miracle Mortgage Corporation is a sponsor of Doug Fabian’s Wealth Strategies radio show.

The Opportunity in Mortgage Interest Rates

Whenever I need an update on the current real estate and mortgage rate environment, I turn to my trusted experts at Miracle Mortgage Corp. Today we have a special treat from Miracle Mortgage President John Doan, who lets us in on his keen insights straight from the mortgage front. Take it away, John.

The Opportunity in Mortgage Interest Rates

By John Doan, President, Miracle Mortgage

Today consumers are finding deals on all kinds of goods and services as businesses struggle with decreased demand. It was announced recently that consumer spending now makes up 71% of our GDP, which is the highest percentage ever. With all these deals in the market and a tough economy, can there really be a peak in the real estate market?

When it comes to home purchases, consumers most closely review the price they pay at the time they make their home purchase. They will negotiate price, and may even walk away from the deal for a couple thousand dollars difference. But let’s be clear, the biggest impact on real estate’s total cost over the long term is one thing…interest rates.

Assume a buyer bought a $500,000 home with 20% down at 6% over 30 years. That buyer will pay $963,353 over that 30 year period, with $463,353 being interest. At just a 1% drop in the rate to 5%, the total 30 year cost of the same home would be $873,023, with $373,023 representing interest. That’s a discount of $90,330.

Financing of your real estate at favorable rates is the key here, and fortunately rates have never been lower. With an increase in the federal debt likely to continue for the foreseeable future, the government will have to lend more and more money. And with the increased supply, they’ll have to offer higher yields to those buying Treasuries.

Observe the correlation between 10-year government debt and mortgage rates since 1972 in the chart below. Here it is easy to see the long downward trend that’s now reached all-time lows.

Mortgage Rates

If you currently are in an adjustable-rate loan and your rates are over 5%, allow us to do a free assessment to provide you options for your real estate financing needs. Imagine your payment going up 20%, 30% or 50% overnight just because you did not review your options?

Do your due diligence and call Miracle Mortgage today at (888) 536-3453, or email me at askjohn@miraclecorporation.com for your free, no obligation assessment. You may have the opportunity to provide yourself with long-term security for your home or other real estate investments.

Note: Miracle Mortgage Corp. is a sponsor of my radio program, Doug Fabian’s Wealth Strategies.

ETF Talk: Forecasting a Dollar Turnaround

The value of the U.S. dollar has been hammered in recent months, and observes—me included—feel that the greenback’s decline is bound to run out of steam sooner rather than later. When this happens, investors will have a chance to profit by riding the U.S. dollar higher. Of course, nobody knows yet when a reversal of fortune for the dollar will take place, but when it does, you’ll want to be prepared.

One fund that lets investors bet on the recovery of the U.S. dollar is the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP). Investors also may view the UUP as a hedge against a falling stock market and a slowdown in the economy. UUP is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that gains in value as the value of the U.S. dollar climbs and rival foreign currencies fall. In a nutshell, UUP is a bet in favor of a rising dollar.

For those of you who may be eyeing an investment in the dollar, UUP could be a good way for you to hedge against what I suspect will be asset deflation in the equities and a decline in prices stemming from a declining economy. However, such an investment only should involve a small portion of your assets, since it is meant to serve as a hedge against a potential decline in the market and in the economy. If you opt to invest in the dollar, do not make it a primary holding in your portfolio. You also will want to put a stop loss on this position, if choose to buy it. Only risk the amount that you are prepared to loss, since a bet on the U.S. dollar right now is a gamble that the current downward trend of the greenback will reverse.

A final warning on any dollar bet is that if you are not willing to place a stop loss on your position, don’t even think about buying UUP. I cannot stress enough that a hedge position such as this mostly serves as insurance in the event the market comes down and the economy continues faltering. If the idea of hedging seems a bit of a stretch to you, you’re probably better off avoiding such investments.

Meet Our New Mortgage Expert

I am proud to announce the addition of John Doan and his team at Miracle Mortgage as the latest sponsor of my radio program. John has many years of experience in the mortgage industry and is an expert that I turn to for any mortgage related matters. I encourage all of my listeners to seek John’s counsel and learn more about his company below:

Miracle Mortgage Corporation is the right choice for your full-service real estate financing needs. Our services range from residential, commercial mortgage financing, realty services and financial consulting. We pride ourselves on truly personifying full‐service, many years of experience through many types of markets and our wide array of real estate finance solutions. Miracle Mortgage Corporation welcome challenges from people with less than perfect credit to people with perfect credit.

Either by phone, on-line or in person, our staff is ready to satisfy the real estate needs of even the most discerning client. As a privately owned business we have abilities, tools, and customer service standards that large corporations can’t touch. With a variety of loan programs, we will streamline your financing needs. So, whether you’re buying, refinancing, taking out a second, or seeking a home equity loan, we can help. Don’t waste another minute! Contact us today! We have everything in common with our customers.

We are in business to live the American dream, and build a bright, strong future for our families. Let us do the same for you!

A Miracle Mission Statement

At Miracle Mortgage Corporation our goal is to provide the highest standard of personalized financial service possible. Our clients, with each unique situation they have, come first. We consider ourselves mortgage planners, and not by any means, just loan officers.

Our belief is that owning property is a long term commitment. To make the most out of this commitment, the right professionals at Miracle Mortgage Corporation will be here for our clients, for the long term. Our goal is to help people plan to make the most out of their investment, and be able to see the reward of ownership through the years. We believe in Good Faith and Fair Dealings which means that we will never mislead our clients or try to “sell” something that is not right for our clients. The best compliment we can receive is the referral of business associates, friends, and family.

We look forward to making a miracle happen for you!

Contact us today for a free mortgage evaluation. Whether you are a first time home buyer or savvy real estate investor, we can help you find the right mortgage.

Contact Us
John Doan – President, Miracle Mortgage Corporation
Send us an email
Phone: 888.LEND.453
Fax: 888.488.3229
www.mymiraclelending.com

ETF Talk: Change We Can Believe in for 401(k)s

Although exchange-traded-funds (ETFs) are finding their way into the portfolios of many investors, they have yet to make much headway in 401(k) retirement plans. But that situation could start to change. If current drawbacks to using ETFs in 401(k) plans are resolved, the ETF industry would gain increased working capital, heightened revenues and earnings, and enlarged market share at the expense of mutual funds.

It also would open up the world of ETFs to a much bigger pool of investors. Mutual fund companies recognize the competitive threat and counter that they provide many low-cost, index-tracking funds that essentially perform the same service as ETFs.

It would not surprise me at all if many 401(k) providers were eyeing ETFs to supplement their array of mutual fund offerings. The sheer breadth of ETFs gives asset managers a spectrum of investment possibilities. The vast selection will allow retirement portfolios to be cobbled together that are best suited for the individual circumstances of people across a wide range of ages and income brackets.

Ideally, a retirement portfolio should have access to funds that mirror all types of market indexes, ranging from the S&P 500 to overseas stock exchanges. If there is anything that the bear market of 2008 taught us, it has been to diversify. Just ask any wealthy investor or hedge fund manager who used Bernard Madoff to manage money. In the wake of industry scandals and poor performance by money managers, ETFs that track indexes and stock markets are becoming increasingly attractive.

ETFs still have hurdles to overcome before their use in 401(k) plans becomes common place. A correctable weakness for ETFs is that their use in 401(k) accounts involves the payment of fees by plan administrators that—when used inside a “collective trust”—can be higher than the fees for mutual funds. However, that current disadvantage is limited to the use of ETFs in 401(k) accounts and can be remedied.

A 401(k) record keeping company, Invest n’ Retire, of Portland, Ore, has developed a technology to trade ETFs cost-effectively in 401(k) plans. The firm’s software allows ETFs to be traded in real-time at institutional pricing. Coupled with lower management fees, ETFs are becoming attractive investments in 401(k) plans.

ETFs still retain decisive advantages, compared to mutual funds. For example, ETFs offer intra-day trading to allow their purchase and sale throughout a trading day as share prices change. If an investor decides to trade an ETF, the transaction can be processed within seconds to eliminate market risk. In contrast, mutual funds keep the same price throughout a trading day and only revise it the next day after the market closes. That limitation for mutual funds leaves their investors vulnerable to market volatility during the course of a day. Right now, a growing number of mutual fund investors are pulling out their money — driving down fund values for the remaining shareholders.

The Political Quotient

Change. That’s been candidate Obama, and now President Obama’s, rallying cry ever since he vaulted into the political limelight. Well, one thing you have to give the president credit for is his willingness to stick to his guns. You see, if “change” is what you voted for last November, you should consider yourself served, because that’s exactly what you’ve been given.

In the first eight months in office, the president has initiated the largest expansion of the federal government since World War II. He’s spent billions of dollars on corporate bailouts, and run up trillions of dollars in U.S. debt, ostensibly to fight the ravages of his “inherited” economic crisis.

In the first 100 days of his presidency, Mr. Obama signed a $787 billion stimulus bill into law and proposed an astonishing $3.6 trillion budget for the next fiscal year. Some political analysts have called these figures “unprecedented.” I prefer another term; dangerous!

Consider the dizzying array of acronyms describing some of the biggest, and in my view most pernicious, government programs. There’s TARP, (Troubled Asset Relief Program), TALF (Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility) and the PPIP (Public-Private Investment Program). These mega-dollar programs don’t even include the $150 billion for funding green energy sources and $634 billion toward the introduction of universal healthcare.

So, is this too much spending, too fast? Well, I guess that depends on what side of the political aisle you sit.

If you’re a Democrat, you may think that the Obama agenda is a good thing. If you’re a Republican, you likely think the president is on the wrong track. But regardless of which side you come down on, there’s no denying the fact that the president’s plans will have a profound effect on the economy, the financial markets and your money for many years to come.

In my humble opinion, the policies and legislation being thrust upon us by the president and a sympathetic Congress are not conducive to the economy, and they will not fundamentally help right our economic ship.

In fact, I think that the unprecedented intrusion in economic affairs proposed by the president will likely do much more harm than good in the years ahead, and that is why you, the well-informed investor, must be prepared for the reverberations in the economy due to this administration’s actions.

But what, precisely, can you do to protect yourself—and to profit—from the decisions made in Washington, D.C.? Well, the first thing you can do is to read and follow the advice you get in the Alert.

You should also remember that no matter what Washington wants you to do, the beauty of being an American is that you don’t have to do it. In fact, your ability to zig when Washington zags is what makes this country so excellent. Of course, the trick is knowing just how and when to make those moves, and what tools are best suited to do the job.

But perhaps the first thing you should do is make sure you are a “survivor.” Surviving tough economic times with your capital intact is the first rule of successful money management. This is a lesson my father taught me more than three decades ago, and it’s a lesson I will be eternally grateful I learned.

You see, to be a winner in the investing game, you’ve got to have the money to sit at the table. If you lose a significant amount of your capital by trying to outsmart the market during tough times, you’ll wind up either broke or with not enough capital on hand to take advantage of the inevitable opportunities that follow the darkest of market downturns.

The Cost of Health-Care Reform

The latest news on the health-care reform front came today, as Sen. Max Baucus unveiled his highly anticipated Senate Finance Committee version of an American health-system makeover. The Baucus plan will cost taxpayers an estimated $856 billion during the next 10 years, and would make big changes to the nation’s health-care system, including requiring all individuals to purchase health-care or pay a fine, and prohibiting insurance company practices like charging more to people with more serious health problems.

According to the Baucus proposal, consumers would be able to shop for and compare insurance plans in a new purchasing “exchange.” Medicaid would be expanded, and caps would be placed on patients’ yearly health-care costs. Theoretically, the plan would be paid for with $507 billion in cuts to government health programs and $349 billion in new taxes and fees, including a tax on high-end insurance plans and fees on insurance companies and medical device manufacturers.

The one “missing component,” if you will, in the Baucus plan is the so-called “public option,” which is essentially a new, government-run insurance plan designed to “compete” with the private insurance market.

Now, it’s hard to say exactly how this whole health-care reform battle will play out, but one thing I know for sure is that as investors, you better be ready to react to whatever version of the bill gets President Obama’s signature.

If you own stocks in the health-care sector, you’ve likely made some good money. But depending on the specific provisions in the final iteration of this bill, I want you to be prepared to take your health-care sector profits off of the table quickly. There will be time to make a move back into this sector once the dust settles, and once the true winners and losers in the space are revealed.

Hey, it’s just another chapter in the government’s ongoing effect on stocks, so make sure you read the details — and be sure you know what to do when action is necessary.

ETF Talk: Feeling a Global Sugar High

For the first time in 28 years, sugar prices have topped 21 cents per pound. That’s an 88% increase year-to-date! If that isn’t sweet enough, some analysts are projecting that the price of sugar could reach a staggering 40 cents per pound, making this investment even more appetizing.

Many investors have been piling into the commodity in expectation of an even further price increase. If you’re thinking about doing the same, you have several options. One investment that I’ve been watching lately is the iPath Dow Jones AIG Sugar Total Return Sub-Index ETN (SGG). The investment seeks to replicate as close as possible the Dow Jones-AIG Sugar Total Return Sub-Index. The index is intended to reflect the returns that potentially are available through an unleveraged investment in sugar futures contracts, as well as the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury Bills.

This exchange-traded note (ETN) has responded to increased sugar prices. In fact, it’s up 55.4% this year. So, what exactly is behind this price hike? The simple answer is that the sugar supply is shrinking as demand is rising. The world’s consumers simply are seeking more sugar than farmers are producing. According to the International Sugar Organization, world demand will exceed output by as much as 5 million metric tons for the 12-month period ending September 2010.

The short supply can be blamed on several factors. One of the biggest problems for sugar crops this year has been abnormal weather patterns in the world’s largest sugar-producing nations, including Brazil, India and China. The world’s largest sugar producer, Brazil, has been drenched by four times the normal amount of rainfall. While in India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer, rain has been scarce with the country plagued by severe drought.

China, the third-largest sugar producer, will have smaller harvests this year due to reduced planting. The same trend is seen in Russia and Mexico, forcing the world’s biggest sugar exporters to begin importing.

And then there’s also the fact that the world is consuming more sugar in general. Sugar consumption usually increases as per-capita income climbs. So, as conditions and incomes rise in developing countries, sugar consumption only should grow.

A shortage in sugar supply has caused concerns for the management teams at giant food companies such as Kraft Foods (KFT), General Mills (GIS) and Hershey Co (HSY). In a joint letter to Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, the corporate leaders wrote, “we may well virtually run out of sugar.”

It is unclear whether sugar prices will continue to rise, despite the forecasts of analysts who predict that the prices for that sweet commodity likely will climb higher. However, market booms ultimately go bust. When the price of sugar reaches its peak, those still invested in it are vulnerable to the inevitable downturn. As a result, investors should enter with caution. If you think that prices will continue to climb, SGG could be a very sweet choice.

ETF Strategies for a Dollar Crisis

I’ve never been the kind of guy who responds well to scare tactics. In fact, it takes a lot for me to start climbing the wall of worry. So when I tell you that I am worried about what I think is a looming, and very dangerous, currency crisis, well, let’s just say that I highly recommend you take it to heart.

Everyone knows what’s been taking place in Washington, D.C. over the last eight months. We’ve seen a veritable explosion of reckless deficit spending, with the federal government issuing massive amounts of debt and running the printing presses 24 hours a day, seven days a week in an effort to snatch the slumping economy from the clutches of the worst recession since the Great Depression.

Now, in addition to the massive federal spending that’s taken place, President Obama and his Congressional cohorts continue pressing for a nationalized healthcare program—a program that could end up costing Americans’ trillions of dollars per year. How are we going to pay for this grand healthcare plan? Certainly higher taxes on the so-called “rich” are coming, but soaking the rich won’t be enough. Filling the cost void will undoubtedly mean the issuance of more and more government debt.

Already, the amount of debt the country carries is costing us billions of dollars a year in interest. And with all this deficit spending, we’ve witnessed the value of the U.S. dollar vs. rival foreign currencies descend approximately 12% in just the past six months! The declining value of the greenback is part of the reason why the prices of both oil and gold have gone through the proverbial roof.

Right now we are sitting at the crossroads of what could be a transformative turn in the history of our beloved currency. Now is the time to prepare for what I believe may be a currency catastrophe.

Ask yourself the following:

  • How would a currency crisis affect my wealth?
  • How would my stocks, bonds and mutual funds react to a decimation of the dollar’s value?
  • What steps can I take to shelter my money from the fallout of a dollar debacle?

The answers to these questions and many more, will be the topic of my next one-hour teleconference. This teleconference is scheduled for Tuesday, Sept. 15, at 11 a.m. Pacific time, 2 p.m. Eastern time. To sign up for this FREE one-hour conference call, simply click here.

In addition to answering the above concerns, I’ll be sharing with you four strategies using my favorite investment tool, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that you can use to actually profit from a dollar decline.

The next teleconference is Part Two of a Five Part Series I’ve created on the impact the Obama administration and Congress could have on your money. This series will cover what I believe you can do to protect and build your wealth, even as these politicians plot to destroy it. My friends, the Federal Reserve, the Administration and Congress all are taking unprecedented risks with our tax dollars and our children’s future. If you are as concerned as I am, make sure you register today for this special teleconference series.

Remember, one of the greatest freedoms we still enjoy in this country is our freedom to act independent of what the government wants us to do. Well, the time to act is now, and doing so is just a click away. Keep in mind, however, that this event will fill up quickly. Due to technical restrictions we are limited to just 800 participants so make sure you reserve your place and register today.

I look forward to sharing my views with you on Sept. 15.

Sincerely,

Doug Fabian

P.S. I will prepare a comprehensive handout for you to download prior to the event so that you can more easily follow along and take notes.

Note: Fabian Wealth Strategies, Inc. is a registered investment advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Doug Fabian is a registered investment advisor representative. The information expressed in this seminar is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any specific security. Consider the risks, fees, and expenses before making any change to your investment portfolio.

Money Show ETF Presentation

As a followup to my presentation at the San Francisco Money Show I have posted the latest edition of my PowerPoint The Seven Secrets of Success for ETF Investors for everyone to view.   Click below to download this PDF.

Seven Secrets of Success for ETF Investors – August 2009

Best of luck in your investing endeavors.

A Summit by the Bay

This weekend I am heading off to one of my favorite cities in the world, the incomparable San Francisco, California. I will be there for the annual investor summit by the Bay, otherwise known as the San Francisco Money Show.

At the show, I will be making several presentations on ETFs and how investors can use them in their portfolios. If you live anywhere near the Bay area, or if you are planning on being in the area this weekend, I cordially invite you to join me and my Eagle Publishing colleagues for all of the financial festivities.

Now, if you can’t make it to the Bay area this weekend, you can still watch me give my presentation, “ETF Strategies in a Difficult Market” via your computer. To find out more about how you can view my Money Show webinar, and to get all the details about the show, click here.

Hope to see you in San Francisco!

ETF Talk: Polishing up Silver

With inflation fears weighing on many investors’ minds during recent months, gold has become a useful hedge. But silver’s performance this summer proves that gold is not the only way to invest profitably in precious metals.

Increased government spending has caused the U.S. dollar to depreciate, and investors are turning to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to protect their hard-earned money. One way to do this is by investing in precious metals such as silver and gold that are not linked directly to the U.S. dollar. Indeed, the performance of silver has continued to shine even though the dollar started to recover during July. In contrast, the price of gold has begun to weaken with the U.S. dollar starting to rebound.

There are good reasons why silver is retaining its luster. First, silver is less expensive to buy than gold. Second, silver benefits from rising industrial usage. Since silver is an electrical and thermal conductor, it is deployed in high-performance electronics and high-voltage circuits. Silver also has anti-bacterial properties that allow it to be used in the medical and water purification industries. In addition, the precious metal often is relied upon in food packaging and in solar panels used to provide alternative energy.

So when inflation threatens, silver offers a safe haven. Even when inflation worries subside, silver still retains appeal due to its many uses.

If you’re attracted to silver, you might want to consider iShares Silver Trust (SLV). The trust is intended to reflect the price of silver, less expenses and liabilities. Although the trust is not an exact equivalent of an investment in silver, it lets investors participate in the rise of the silver market. It certainly can pay off, as SLV is up 19.46% so far this year through August 18th, 2009.

Why I Love Exchange-Traded Funds

Subscribers to my investment newsletters and trading services know about my passion for exchange-traded funds (ETFs). During the past several months, I have provided you with features relevant to investors who are looking to improve their portfolios with a variety of funds that are both diversified and cost efficient. Now, I want to get back to the basics of ETF investing with today’s write-up, “Why I love Exchange-Traded Funds.”

Today’s ETF Talk feature was inspired by a presentation I made in May at the 20th Annual Money Show in Las Vegas. This presentation, which I titled, ETF Strategies in a Difficult Market, highlighted why I love ETFs.

One of the top reasons I love ETFs is their modest cost. ETFs offer low expense ratios, and the annual expenses typically are deducted from dividends. ETFs also produce fewer capital gains and are more tax efficient than mutual funds.

In addition, ETFs offer diversification that reduces risk. The funds typically track indexes that are made up of a basket of stocks. Investors can find ETFs that cover every major index, asset class, and sector. Whether you favor commodities, healthcare, technology or real estate, there is a diversified ETF available to you.

ETFs also are transparent, since they are required to disclose their exact holdings and the percentage of each asset that a fund owns. Because ETFs are traded on exchanges just like stocks, the funds provide liquidity to investors who want to buy and sell them in the open market. But remember to be sure a fund’s trading volumes are adequate to provide liquidity. While not a strict rule of mine, I generally do not recommend ETFs that have an average volume of less than 100,000 shares a day.

Finally, I love the simplicity and variety of ETFs. You usually can find a bull market someplace, no matter what markets elsewhere are doing. The challenge is choosing the sector or the region that investors will begin to favor next.

In my advisory services, I analyze the moving averages of sectors and different stock markets to help determine the best places to invest. It is a system that has served three generations of the Fabian family well. Once you combine our trend-following approach with the instant diversification offered by ETFs, you gain the dual benefits of a proven strategy and one of the most attractive investment instruments to be introduced in years.

Thoughts on Personal Responsibility

I’m a big advocate of taking personal responsibility for the things that go wrong in your life. Usually, what you achieve and what you fail to achieve is directly related to how much effort you’ve put into a given endeavor. I know there are always circumstances beyond one’s control, but the key to leading a successful life is to dodge those unforeseen obstacles and to find a creative way either to work around them, or to turn them into opportunities.

This is a lesson that one Trina Thompson has failed to learn.

Who is Trina Thompson, you ask? She’s the woman who’s sued her college for the $70,000 she spent on tuition because her new bachelor’s degree in information technology hasn’t yet landed her a job.

Well, Trina, I have a news flash for you. If you can’t find a job, maybe the problem has more to do with you than with your college education. Perhaps that thought hasn’t entered your mind, but it should. You see, judging by the steps you’ve taken to foist the blame for your lack of achievement on your college, I can deduce that you need to take a good hard look at yourself in the mirror. And if you look closely, I suspect you’ll see a veil of victimhood shrouding you like a brilliant aura.

Now I don’t mean to get too personal, Ms. Thompson, as I only know you via your absurd lawsuit, but what I can say to you is this. Nobody is guaranteed a job in this world. I am quite certain your college’s career center didn’t guarantee you employment just because you managed to pass the school’s course work. There are plenty of people out there with similar degrees that are under employed in this tough economic environment.

The difference between you and the majority of under-employed Americans is that they aren’t going to the legal system to redress their grievances. Rather, I suspect that many professionals out there who have been laid off or downsized are trying to either learn new skills that can make them competitive, or they are waiting patiently until the job market begins to improve.

If I may be so bold, let me just say that rather than taking your college to court, you’d be much better off undertaking a concerted effort to make yourself a more valuable asset to employers. As an employer I know first hand that good help is hard to find, and when you do find good people, you cherish them.

If you do this, you just might find out how good it feels not to be a victim.

The Obama Impact on Your Money

The 44th president has been in office now for nearly six months, and so far his rather ambitious agenda has me very concerned. Regardless of which side of the political aisle you sit, there’s no denying the president’s goals are increased government involvement in the economy. This increased involvement includes more stimulus spending, more deficit financing, more environmental regulation, more involvement in the health care industry, more financial market regulation, of course, higher taxes—particularly on the so-called “rich.”

If you’re a Democrat, you may think the Obama agenda is a good thing. If you’re a Republican, you likely think the president is on the wrong track. But regardless of which side you come down on, there’s no denying the fact that the president’s plans will have a profound effect on the economy, the financial markets and your money. That’s why it is up to you to manage your money accordingly.

Now, I must say up front that in my opinion, the policies and legislation being thrust upon us by the president and a sympathetic Congress are not conducive to the economy, and they will not fundamentally help right our economic ship.

In fact, it is my opinion that the unprecedented intrusion in economic affairs proposed by the president will likely do much more harm than good in the years ahead, and that is what you, the well-informed investor, must prepare for now.

Let me turn now to a few key statistics that should put a big fright into the fiscal centers of your gray matter.

  • Our annual interest payment on the national debt is $26 billion per month, or $300 billion per year.
  • Our deficit so far through the first seven months of 2009 is nearly $1 trillion.
  • Projections on the president’s budget place annual interest payments at $800 billion by 2019.
  • State budgets are $500 billion out of balance this year.
  • Government statistics show a national unemployment rate of 9.5%, and the general consensus is that double-digit employment is right around the corner.

Given these alarming statistics, one is forced to conclude five things about our future. First, taxes are going to go up. Second, credit is likely going to become very expensive and/or unavailable. Third, we are going to experience little or no economic growth, and in fact, we could see another serious recession starting as early as next year. Fourth, we could see another wave of falling stock and real estate prices, otherwise known as asset price deflation. And finally, we have the potential for a dollar crisis.

Now, each of these five prognostications are worrisome, but taken together they add up to one ginormous problem for investors.

So, what now? What do can you do to protect yourself from the Obama impact on your money?

The answers to these questions can be found in my FREE audio special report, appropriately titled, The Obama Impact on Your Money. This one-hour audio presentation includes a complimentary work sheet to help you follow the key points presented.

I strongly encourage you to check this out this FREE audio special report today.

ETF Talk: Commodities—The Population Play

As investors, one of our responsibilities is to pay close attention to the key trends affecting the global economy. One of those trends is an increasing worldwide population.

Actual population growth, as well future projected population growth, will likely spur all kinds of changes, including an increased demand for nearly all commodities.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, world population increased from 3 billion in 1959 to 6 billion by 1999, a doubling that occurred over 40 years. The Census Bureau’s latest projections imply that population growth will continue into the 21st century, albeit at a slightly slower pace.

For investors who want to ride this population wave, I want to point out the PowerShares DB Commodity Index (DBC), an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that seeks to track the performance of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity index. The fund invests in a portfolio of exchange-traded futures on commodities comprising the index. The index commodities are crude oil, heating oil, aluminum, gold, corn and wheat.

DBC revolutionized the ETF market by providing a way to invest in commodities. The fund not only contains popular picks such as gold, but it also includes soft commodities, such as corn, and that makes it different than other commodity funds. DBC has an average trading volume of 2,441,990, well above my preferred minimum trading volume of 100,000 shares.

Because natural resources offer comparatively low correlation to other asset classes, they can outperform other investments, particularly when the stock market is lagging. An allocation to commodities also can help reduce the overall volatility of a portfolio. Of course, the commodity markets can be very volatile, so be sure you are ready for a roller-coaster ride if you decide to climb aboard the commodity wagon.

ETF Talk: Is it Time for the Nuclear Option?

For 30 years, no shovelful of soil was turned to construct a nuclear plant in the United States until 2006 when groundbreaking occurred for the National Enrichment facility in New Mexico. With elected officials calling to reduce U.S. dependence on carbon-based fuel, interest in nuclear power could reignite. With President Obama declaring that nuclear energy will be a huge part of an effective energy policy, now may be the time for investors to consider an exchange-traded fund (ETFs) that focuses on alternative energy sources.

With environmentalists protesting that global warming threatens the planet, interest in nuclear energy and other non-carbon based fuel is on the rise. Although alternate energy sources such as solar and wind seem safer and trendier, neither of those technologies is capable of replacing coal or natural gas in the foreseeable future.

Despite the current recession, energy demand remains reasonably strong. Global electricity consumption is expected to double in the next 25 years. With a projected fossil fuel shortage to meet such long-term demand, experts believe that nearly 50 new nuclear plants will be constructed around the world by 2020. More than half of those are expected to be in the emerging markets of China, India and Russia.

Countries such as France already have 80% of their energy supplied by nuclear power. In addition, one of the biggest advantages of nuclear reactors is that once these plants are completed, they usually operate for decades and provide a steady revenue stream. So how do you profit from this surge in the sector? Well, there is a way to “go nuclear.”

The Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF (NLR) is a fund designed to give investors exposure to public companies in the nuclear energy sector. The fund normally invests at least 80% of total assets in equity securities of U.S. and foreign companies primarily engaged in the nuclear energy business.

As solar and wind energy still are years away from developing a sustainable and cheap product, all signs point towards going nuclear. With the massive surge in the construction of nuclear plants around the world, this sector is a must for any investor watch list.

The Worst of all Possible Worlds

The literati out there will likely remember the famous refrain, “The best of all possible worlds,” from Voltaire’s master work, Candide. In the novel, Voltaire set out to expose what he considered a fallacious line of thinking proffered by the philosopher Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz. According to Leibniz, because God is both good and omnipotent, and since He chose this world out of all possibilities, this world must in fact be the best of all possible worlds.

Now, fast-forward some 250 years since the publication of Candide, and let’s put a little twist on the theme of the best of all possible worlds. You see, when it comes to the very real economic fears of both inflation and deflation, what we could be looking at is the worst of all possible worlds.

On the inflation side of the coin, we are staring at the very real possibility of higher commodity prices as world demand for agriculture, metals, oil and other necessities of industrial civilization continue growing. Plus, with the Federal Reserve and the Obama Administration intent on printing and spending our way out of a the financial crisis, the value of the U.S. dollar vs. rival foreign currencies is bound to be headed south. Taken together, these two factors mean commodity price inflation.

On the flipside of the coin, we also are staring at the very real possibility of wage deflation in the U.S. Because of the huge supply of willing and capable labor around the globe, corporations are finding it advantageous to outsource much of their labor needs. And because of the lack of an intense regulatory and unionized environment such as we have here in the U.S., companies are increasingly opting to go with cheaper foreign labor.

I call this a “wage arbitrage,” which simply means that companies are going to outsource more and more of their labor and production costs to countries where that cost is much lower than it otherwise would be in the U.S. This could cause a lack of demand in the already beaten-up U.S. employment market, and that reduced demand will likely cause wage deflation here in the U.S. Think about it this way; why would a company want to employ a U.S. worker for the equivalent of $20 per hour when they can get the same job done outside the U.S. for the equivalent of $2 per hour.

Commodity price inflation due to burgeoning world demand, and wage deflation in the U.S. due to an increased supply of unemployed and underemployed workers—this is indeed the worst of all possible worlds.

Let’s just hope the political class recognizes this ugly possibility before its too late.

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